Prognostic model research
Sample size for developing a prognostic model

Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model (PDF)

A note on estimating the Cox‐Snell R2 from a reported C statistic (AUROC) to inform sample size calculations for developing a prediction model with a binary outcome (PDF)

Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: PART I ‐ continuous outcomes (PDF)

Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: PART II ‐ binary & time‐to‐event outcomes (PDF)

Sample size for binary logistic prediction models: Beyond events per variable criteria (PDF)

No rationale for 1 variable per 10 events criterion for binary logistic regression analysis (PDF)

Adaptive sample size determination for the development of clinical prediction models (PDF)

How Can Machine Learning be Reliable When the Sample is Adequate for Only One Feature? (blog)

Modern Modelling Techniques Are Data Hungry: A Simulation Study for Predicting Dichotomous Endpoints (PDF)
Videos on sample size for model development available here
"Why the EPV ≥ 10 sample size rule is rubbish and what to use instead"  slides by Dr Maarten van Smeden available here
Sample size for external validation of a prognostic model

Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a binary outcome (inpress, Stat Med)

External validation of clinical prediction models: simulationbased sample size calculations were more reliable than rules of thumb (PDF)

Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a continuous outcome (PDF)
(also see corresponding videos here)

Sample size considerations for the external validation of a multivariable prognostic model: a resampling study (PDF)

A calibration hierarchy for risk models was defined: from utopia to empirical data (PDF)

Substantial effective sample sizes were required for external validation studies of predictive logistic regression models (PDF)

Discriminationbased sample size calculations for multivariable prognostic models for timetoevent data (PDF)
Stages of prognostic model research

Prognosis and prognostic research: what, why, and how? (PDF)

Prognosis and prognostic research: developing a prognostic model (PDF)

Prognosis and prognostic research: Validating a prognostic model (PDF)

Prognosis and prognostic research: application and impact of prognostic models in clinical practice (PDF)

Guide to presenting clinical prediction models for use in clinical settings (PDF)

Presentation of multivariate data for clinical use: The Framingham Study risk score functions (PDF)
Improving prognostic model research

The basics of prediction modelling, and related topics (slides from Dr Maarten van Smeden)

Key steps and common pitfalls in developing and validating risk models (PDF)

Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, ... (PDF)

Towards better clinical prediction models: seven steps for development and an ABCD for validation (PDF)

Everything you always wanted to know about evaluating prediction models (but were too afraid to ask) (PDF)

Variable selection – A review and recommendations for the practicing statistician (PDF)

Harnessing repeated measurements of predictor variables for clinical risk prediction: a review of existing methods (PDF)
Notes of caution:

Penalization and shrinkage methods produced unreliable clinical prediction models especially when sample size was small (PDF) (also see video here)

Inappropriate use of bivariable analysis to screen risk factors for use in multivariable analysis (PDF)

Poor performance of clinical prediction models: the harm of commonly applied methods (PDF)

Regression shrinkage methods for clinical prediction models do not guarantee improved performance ... (PDF)

Three myths about risk thresholds for prediction models (PDF)

Quantifying the impact of different approaches for handling continuous predictors on the performance of a prognostic model (PDF)
Video on controversies in prediction modelling using statistical methods and machine learning available here
Video on COVID19 related prediction models available here
Evaluating the performance of a prognostic model

A calibration hierarchy for risk models was defined: from utopia to empirical data (PDF)

Calibration: the Achilles heel of predictive analytics (PDF)

Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis (PDF)

Prediction models need appropriate internal, internalexternal, and external validation (PDF)

Construction and validation of a prognostic model across several studies ... (PDF)

Assessment of predictive performance in incomplete data by combining internal validation & multiple imputation (PDF)

Validation and updating of risk models based on multinomial logistic regression (PDF)

Assessing calibration of multinomial risk prediction models (PDF)

A splinebased tool to assess and visualize the calibration of multiclass risk predictions (PDF)

External validation of a Cox prognostic model: principles and methods (PDF)

Tools for checking calibration of a Cox model in external validation: Approach based on individual event probabilities (PDF)

Graphical calibration curves and the integrated calibration index (ICI) for survival models (PDF)

External validation of clinical prediction models using big datasets from ehealth records or IPD metaanalysis (PDF)

Net benefit approaches to the evaluation of prediction models, molecular markers, and diagnostic tests (PDF)

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers (PDF)
Improving prognostic survival models

Temporal recalibration for improving prognostic model development and risk predictions ... (PDF)

Prognostic Models With Competing Risks: Methods and Application to Coronary Risk Prediction (PDF)

Validation, calibration, revision and combination of prognostic survival models (PDF)

Flexible Parametric Survival Analysis Using Stata: Beyond the Cox Model (PDF)