Dr Matthew Sperrin gave the talk "When is Causal Thinking Needed for Prediction" covering emerging topics such as counterfactual prediction:

Emerging topics in prediction modeling

Dr Glen Martin gave the talk "Multi-outcome risk prediction modelling: current state-of-play and future research", including some discussion on multivariate methods for prediction modelling. To watch this talk, please visit here.

Lucy Bull (NIHR Doctoral Research Fellow) gave the following talk "Harnessing repeated measurements of predictor variables: A review of existing methods for clinical risk prediction" for the NIHR Maudsley BRC prediction modelling seminar. The corresponding paper is available here.

Prof Nan van Geloven gave the following talk "Why most prediction models cannot support treatment decisions". Currently, in the development of prediction models ad hoc approaches are used for patients who start a treatment. Patients may for instance be excluded or censored or the treatments are ignored. Consequences of such analysis choices on the interpretation of the calculated risks are typically neglected which may lead to wrongly interpreted risks. In particular, risks may not provide the input to treatment decisions they are expected to give. In this talk, Nan proposes 'predictimand' framework to deal with treatment in clinical prediction models. Analogous to the ICH estimand guideline for clinical trials, the ‘predictimand' framework is comprised of different questions that may be of interest when predicting risk in relation to treatment started after baseline. Nan provides definitions of the estimands matching these questions, giving examples of settings in which each is useful.